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Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 20h ago
December 31, 2027 35%March 31, 2027 27%Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? 16%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsBuy
December 31, 2027No smart money35%0.040%
3 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
March 31, 202727%17%−10
December 31, 202735%40%+5
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?16%12%−4
AI analysts' average · Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?
12%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 1,808 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Your forecast on Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?Yes dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No cambridgeisaaccambridgeisaac: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1troimtroim: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 cambridgeisaaccambridgeisaac: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2clazzy1clazzy1: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 2
March 31, 2027Yes Copyright-1Copyright-1: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Copyright-1Copyright-1: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if NVIDIA, Jensen Huang or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce, by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, that Huang has resigned, retired, stepped down or been removed as NVIDIA CEO, or will be. The departure must be intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement. Stepping down to take another role at NVIDIA counts. Temporary leaves, conditional statements and media reports do not count. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- Only an announcement of a departure intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement qualifies. Remarks like 'I will not be in office forever' do not count, and neither do media reports.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Huang has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as CEO of NVIDIA. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as CEO, including to take another role at NVIDIA, and removal includes dismissal or termination by NVIDIA’s Board of Directors. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying resignation or removal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Jensen Huang and NVIDIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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