MarketsPolitics
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN16 levels open1 closedResearch 1h ago
Hakeem Jeffries 55%Hillary Clinton 46%Stephen Colbert 20%Ken Paxton 16%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
16 levels open · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
16 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Hakeem Jeffries55%60%+5
Hillary Clinton46%46%0
Stephen Colbert20%18%−2
Ken Paxton16%9%−7
Friedrich Merz14%8%−6
Zohran Mamdani14%20%+6
+10 more options
AI analysts' average · Vladimir Putin
5%
2 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Biggest gap
Pope Leo XIV: AI 12% vs market 3%, 9 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
