MarketsAI
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN10 levels openResearch 3h ago
October 30 75%October 29 65%October 28 63%October 27 55%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
10 levels open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
10 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 213%8%+5
October 2214%16%+2
October 2316%23%+7
October 3177%71%−6
October 2419%20%+1
October 2616%29%+13
+4 more options
AI analysts' average · October 27
45%
10 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Biggest gap
October 26: AI 29% vs market 16%, 13 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
October 311310 · 3
October 2494 · 5
October 2261 · 5
October 2152 · 3
October 2610 · 1
October 2711 · 0
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
