How do I trade on "Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Ursula von der Leyen 72%Mark Rutte 55%António Guterres 12%Emmanuel Macron 12%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

6 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Ursula von der Leyen72%+4.5 pts60%1 · 0

Mark Rutte55%+15.0 pts39%1 · 0

António Guterres12%—11%none

Emmanuel Macron12%−1.0 pts12%none

Mark Carney8%+1.5 pts7%none

JD Vance5%−1.3 pts5%0 · 1

6 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Ursula von der Leyen72%60%−12

Mark Rutte55%39%−16

António Guterres12%11%−1

Emmanuel Macron12%12%0

Mark Carney8%7%−1

JD Vance5%5%0

AI analysts' average · Ursula von der Leyen

60%

12 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Mark Rutte: AI 39% vs market 55%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Ursula von der Leyen11 · 0

Mark Rutte11 · 0

JD Vance10 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Ursula von der Leyen 72%Mark Rutte 55%António Guterres 12%Emmanuel Macron 12%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

6 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Ursula von der Leyen72%+4.5 pts60%1 · 0

Mark Rutte55%+15.0 pts39%1 · 0

António Guterres12%—11%none

Emmanuel Macron12%−1.0 pts12%none

Mark Carney8%+1.5 pts7%none

JD Vance5%−1.3 pts5%0 · 1

6 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Ursula von der Leyen72%60%−12

Mark Rutte55%39%−16

António Guterres12%11%−1

Emmanuel Macron12%12%0

Mark Carney8%7%−1

JD Vance5%5%0

AI analysts' average · Ursula von der Leyen

60%

12 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Mark Rutte: AI 39% vs market 55%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Ursula von der Leyen11 · 0

Mark Rutte11 · 0

JD Vance10 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts