MarketsWorld
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 levels openResearch 1d ago
Ursula von der Leyen 69%Mark Rutte 51%António Guterres 12%Emmanuel Macron 12%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
7 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Ursula von der Leyen69%65%−4
Mark Rutte51%39%−12
António Guterres12%11%−1
Emmanuel Macron12%12%0
Mark Carney11%7%−4
JD Vance5%5%0
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Ursula von der Leyen
65%
4 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 163–225 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Ursula von der Leyen11 · 0
Mark Rutte11 · 0
JD Vance10 · 1
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sign in to comment