How do I trade on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

40%+ 30%45%+ 30%50%+ 29%55%+ 16%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

40%+30%−2.2 pts65%2 · 3

45%+30%−1.5 pts27%1 · 3

50%+29%−1.0 pts25%2 · 1

55%+16%+2.0 pts14%1 · 2

4 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

40%+30%65%+35

45%+30%27%−3

50%+29%25%−4

55%+16%14%−2

AI analysts' average · 55%+

14%

2 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

40%+: AI 65% vs market 30%, 35 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's AI release traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

40%+52 · 3

45%+41 · 3

50%+32 · 1

55%+31 · 2

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

40%+ 30%45%+ 30%50%+ 29%55%+ 16%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

40%+30%−2.2 pts65%2 · 3

45%+30%−1.5 pts27%1 · 3

50%+29%−1.0 pts25%2 · 1

55%+16%+2.0 pts14%1 · 2

4 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

40%+30%65%+35

45%+30%27%−3

50%+29%25%−4

55%+16%14%−2

AI analysts' average · 55%+

14%

2 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

40%+: AI 65% vs market 30%, 35 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's AI release traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

40%+52 · 3

45%+41 · 3

50%+32 · 1

55%+31 · 2

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Related Markets

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts