How do I trade on "Will Benny Gantz be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 optionsCloses Mar 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 19 options

No Next Minister by Feb 28 41%Naftali Bennett 17%Avigdor Lieberman 12%Ofer Winter 6%

19 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Next Minister by Feb 2841%+2.6 pts35%none

Naftali Bennett17%+2.8 pts14%none

Avigdor Lieberman12%−0.9 pts15%none

Ofer Winter6%+4.7 pts4%none

Israel Katz5%−4.0 pts12%none

Bezalel Smotrich5%+4.0 pts6%none

Itamar Ben Gvir5%−0.1 pts5%none

Yoram Cohen2%−1.3 pts3%none

Yair Lapid2%−2.4 pts3%none

Gadi Eizenkot2%−2.9 pts5%none

Elazar Stern1%−2.2 pts1%none

Yair Golan<1%−0.6 pts1%none

Benjamin Netanyahu<1%−1.1 pts1%none

Benny Gantz<1%—5%none

Amir Ohana<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Yoaz Hendel<1%—1%none

Moshe Feiglin<1%−2.0 pts1%none

Eli Cohen<1%−0.1 pts2%none

Matan Kahana<1%−0.1 pts1%none

19 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Next Minister by Feb 2841%35%−6

Naftali Bennett17%14%−3

Avigdor Lieberman12%15%+3

Ofer Winter6%4%−2

Israel Katz5%12%+7

Bezalel Smotrich5%6%+1

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Benny Gantz

4 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Israel Katz: AI 12% vs market 5%, 7 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2d
Benny Gantz bows out of Israeli race as polls keep him below threshold
Türkiye Today

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

19 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 optionsCloses Mar 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 19 options

No Next Minister by Feb 28 41%Naftali Bennett 17%Avigdor Lieberman 12%Ofer Winter 6%

19 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Next Minister by Feb 2841%+2.6 pts35%none

Naftali Bennett17%+2.8 pts14%none

Avigdor Lieberman12%−0.9 pts15%none

Ofer Winter6%+4.7 pts4%none

Israel Katz5%−4.0 pts12%none

Bezalel Smotrich5%+4.0 pts6%none

Itamar Ben Gvir5%−0.1 pts5%none

Yoram Cohen2%−1.3 pts3%none

Yair Lapid2%−2.4 pts3%none

Gadi Eizenkot2%−2.9 pts5%none

Elazar Stern1%−2.2 pts1%none

Yair Golan<1%−0.6 pts1%none

Benjamin Netanyahu<1%−1.1 pts1%none

Benny Gantz<1%—5%none

Amir Ohana<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Yoaz Hendel<1%—1%none

Moshe Feiglin<1%−2.0 pts1%none

Eli Cohen<1%−0.1 pts2%none

Matan Kahana<1%−0.1 pts1%none

19 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Next Minister by Feb 2841%35%−6

Naftali Bennett17%14%−3

Avigdor Lieberman12%15%+3

Ofer Winter6%4%−2

Israel Katz5%12%+7

Bezalel Smotrich5%6%+1

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Benny Gantz

4 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Israel Katz: AI 12% vs market 5%, 7 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2d
Benny Gantz bows out of Israeli race as polls keep him below threshold
Türkiye Today

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

19 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Related Markets

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

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AI analysts

News

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