MarketsWorld
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 4h ago
No Next Minister by Feb 28 40%Naftali Bennett 22%Avigdor Lieberman 13%Israel Katz 9%
7 options · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 options trading, by chance. +12 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No Next Minister by Feb 2840%35%−5
Naftali Bennett22%14%−8
Avigdor Lieberman13%15%+2
Israel Katz9%12%+3
Bezalel Smotrich8%6%−2
Ofer Winter5%4%−1
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Itamar Ben Gvir
5%
level with the market · 3 AI analysts
Biggest gap
Naftali Bennett: AI 14% vs market 22%, 8 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
7 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
