MarketsAI
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
68% chance
— 24hAI analysts 49% (7)News 8 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI · HIGH
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if OpenAI's NPM Price (Nasdaq Private Market, via the SecondMarket data page) reaches or exceeds $1.25T for any date from market creation to 2026-12-31. If OpenAI IPOs first, the IPO-implied valuation and public market cap also count.
Latest
2026: OpenAI closed a funding round of $122B committed capital at an $852B post-money valuation (search summaries; exact date not confirmed).
cryptoslate.com +22026-06: OpenAI reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO. Reports say it is preparing to launch at about $1T, including a $60B raise. OpenAI told Reuters there is no set IPO date (Paypers, Cointelegraph, StartupHub).
cointelegraph.com +12025-10: OpenAI's tender offer was at a $500B valuation (search summary).
cryptoslate.com +2
What to watch next A possible IPO launch or pricing in late 2026 (no date set). NPM publishes daily; the final data check is 2027-01-01 to 2027-01-04.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if OpenAI's NPM Price (Nasdaq Private Market, via the SecondMarket data page) reaches or exceeds $1.25T for any date from market creation to 2026-12-31. If OpenAI IPOs first, the IPO-implied valuation and public market cap also count. Otherwise No.
Earlier
Prediction-market snippets (undated, undetermined source) put the $1.25T tier at about 38.5%.
cryptoslate.com +2I did not retrieve the current NPM Price value from the resolution page. It is unknown here.
cryptoslate.com +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
49%
19 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
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- 50%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
