MarketsAI
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN15 levels open1 closedResearch 2h ago
↑$1.3T 76%↑$1.35T 60%↑$1.4T 44%↑$1.45T 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
15 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
15 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑$4.0T2%1%−1
↑$3.0T2%1%−1
↑$2.5T3%2%−1
↑$2.0T6%4%−2
↑$1.75T5%5%0
↑$1.5T16%18%+2
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · ↑$1.4T
36%
8 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 225 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑$1.75TYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
↑$1.5TYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
↓$700BYes occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
↓$600BYes occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
↑$3.0TNo TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↑$2.5TNo TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓$800BYes occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
↑$1.3TNo Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓$750BYes occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 occasionalAwarenessoccasionalAwareness: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Sign in to comment
