MarketsMovies & TV
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN19 levels openResearch 12m ago
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel 55%Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez 53%Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan 49%Tom Holland as Spider-Man 44%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
19 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
19 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine94%92%−2
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man93%90%−3
Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool88%85%−3
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange85%85%0
Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop79%65%−14
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau79%72%−7
+13 more options
AI analysts' average · Hugh Jackman as Wolverine
92%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 232 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Halle Berry as StormYes HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
18 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
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