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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level open
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26? 98%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 option trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?98%54%−44
AI analysts' average · S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?
54%
44 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 342 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?Yes greedymartingreedymartin: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 greedymartingreedymartin: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1rider67rider67: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
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