MarketsAI
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
78% chance
+10.5 pts 24hAI analysts 75% (7)News 4 todayNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 76%
Market prior; no qualifying successor pricing evidence supplied.
- 72%
The incumbent's $50 output price supports continuity, but both a qualifying successor and its debut price remain uncertain.
- 72%
Fable 5.1's reported $50 standard output price supports continuity, but a qualifying public successor and its debut base price remain unconfirmed.
- 75%
The predecessor's reported $50 standard output price supports the threshold, conditional on a timely qualifying release and unchanged pricing.
- 78%
The predecessor's reported $50 output price supports continuity, while qualifying release timing and official debut pricing remain uncertain.
- 75%
Fable 5.1 is $50 output and Anthropic usually holds pricing, but it cut Opus pricing at 4.5.
- 78%
Fable 5.1 lists $50 output; Anthropic usually holds price within a family, but a cut like Opus 4.5's is possible.
Full research · updated 2h ago
What decides it
Yes if Anthropic releases to the general public, by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET, a model with 'Fable' in its name and version 5.2 or higher (including Fable 6), and its debut standard global 'Base tokens' output price is at least the market's price. Batch, fast mode, cached and US-only prices don't count. Otherwise No. The price threshold is $50, taken from the question title.
Latest
Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 were released together (letsdatascience). Fable 5.1 sits below the 5.2 qualifying threshold, so it doesn't count.
letsdatascience.comI found no announcement of Fable 5.2 or Fable 6. I didn't check Anthropic's official pricing page directly.
www.eesel.ai +2Third-party pricing trackers list Claude Fable 5.1 API at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens. Batch is $25 output. (eesel.ai, anotherwrapper, pricepertoken via search snippet)
www.eesel.ai +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
75%
3 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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