MarketsPolitics
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN20 options2 closedResearch 1d ago
280-299 19%260-279 18%300-319 16%240-259 13%
20 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
20 options trading. +7 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
160-179<1%1%+1
180-199<1%8%+8
200-2192%12%+10
220-2395%13%+8
240-25913%12%−1
260-27918%13%−5
+14 more options
AI analysts' average · 160-179
1%
1 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 2 price closer, on 167–220 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
220-23932 · 1
280-29922 · 0
500-51922 · 0
180-19911 · 0
240-25911 · 0
260-27911 · 0
300-31911 · 0
400-41911 · 0
420-43911 · 0
460-47911 · 0
480-49911 · 0
520-53911 · 0
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 20 12:00 PM ET to October 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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