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Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
49% chance
+14.0 pts 24hAI analysts 48% (7)News 2 todayNews
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AI analysts
- 45%
The 1.38M first-hour report weakly supports a moderate total, but no later count establishes a narrow 40–60M week-one bracket.
- 45%
The first-hour count permits this range, but no later count is available and previous GTA trailers had very different viewing trajectories.
- 49%
Provisional market prior; exact upload time and current cumulative trailer views are unavailable.
- 49%
The first-hour count cannot reliably determine the seven-day bracket; retain the market prior pending a later observation.
- 49%
An unverified first-hour count provides little basis for forecasting a narrow seven-day bracket.
- 50%
A day 1 near 20-40M implies roughly 35-75M for the week.
- 52%
Day 1 looks 20-40M; week 1 of roughly 1.5-2x lands near this bracket.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Yes if the YouTube 'views' counter on Rockstar's 'Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer' (rz1B4B2yBZY) shows 40,000,000 to 60,000,000 views 7 days after it was posted. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. Otherwise No.
Latest
2026-10-15/16: One report says the trailer had 1.38M YouTube views in its first hour. No 24-hour or later count was found (search summary). The exact post time is not confirmed, so the 7-day window ends around Oct 22.
x.com +3Reference points: Trailer 1 (Dec 2023) got about 93M YouTube views in 24h and has over 260M views now. Trailer 2 (May 2025) got 475M views in 24h across all platforms, and YouTube alone was a fraction of that (Variety; TheGamer; Jang).
www.thegamer.comGTA VI release date is Nov 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S (Rockstar).
x.com +3Rockstar posted the 90-second Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer. It uses 'Flower in a Hurricane' by Justice feat. Tame Impala, SZA and King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard, and shows the Nov 19 release date (Rockstar on X; Wccftech; 9to5Toys).
wccftech.com +1
What to watch next The 7-day mark is about 2026-10-22, depending on the exact post time. Trading ends 2026-10-23T03:59Z.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
48%
1 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
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Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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