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Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Jan 23, 2027Research 3h ago

Polymarket chance · top 3 of 5 options

2.0-2.4% 69%≤1.9% 27%2.5-2.9% <1%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
≤1.9%27%+0.2 pts27%—
2.0-2.4%69%+0.3 pts41%—
2.5-2.9%<1%+0.1 pts1%—
3.0-3.4%————
4.0%+————

5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

6 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 3h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
≤1.9%27%27%0
2.0-2.4%69%41%−28
2.5-2.9%<1%1%0
3.0-3.4%———
4.0%+———

AI analysts' average · ≤1.9%

27%

level with the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 166 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 7h
    Japan Core Inflation Exceeds BOJ Target, Cements Near-Term Rate Hike Chance
    KONTAN
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
How markets resolve
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≤1.9% · Buy YesOption 1 of 5

Polymarket price · live

Yes28¢
No75¢

Mid: The midpoint between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. When the spread is 10¢ or less, this is the chance the page shows. 27¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 3¢

Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · ≤1.9%

  • News1 today · latest 7h
  • AI analysts27% · level
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.