MarketsPolitics
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels openResearch 1h ago
Tom Homan 8%Pam Bondi 5%Adam Schiff 5%Barack Obama 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order. +19 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Adam Schiff5%3%−2
Barack Obama2%1%−1
John Kerry2%1%−1
Pam Bondi5%2%−3
Tom Homan8%——
AI analysts' average · John Kerry
1%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 333 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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