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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN15 optionsCloses Jul 1, 2027Research 5m ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 15 options

John Malkovich 41%Andrew Scott 20%Matt Damon 17%Tom Cruise 11%

15 options · by chance

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
John Malkovich41%−0.5 pts——
Andrew Scott20%+0.5 pts——
Matt Damon17%−1.5 pts——
Tom Cruise11%−1.0 pts——
Robert Pattinson4%−0.2 pts——
John Turturro1%−0.2 pts1%—
Ryan Gosling1%—2%—
Jeremy Strong<1%—1%—
Jaafar Jackson<1%———
Anthony Ippolito<1%———
Sebastian Stan<1%———
Brad Pitt<1%———
Pedro Pascal<1%———
Adam Driver<1%———
Josh O'Connor<1%—1%none

15 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 5m ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
John Malkovich41%——
Andrew Scott20%——
Matt Damon17%——
Tom Cruise11%——
Robert Pattinson4%——
John Turturro1%1%0
+9 more options

AI analysts' average · Josh O'Connor

1%

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 264 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 11h
    Josh O’Connor’s West End play is coming to cinemas
    RUSSH
  • 3d
    James Bond: Jack Lowden, Callum Turner, and Josh O'Connor among finalists in screen tests (with video)
    Plataforma Media
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 15 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How markets resolve
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Related Markets

Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Will Adam Driver win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Will Pedro Pascal win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Josh O'Connor · Buy YesOption 15 of 15

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No100¢

Mid: The midpoint between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. When the spread is 10¢ or less, this is the chance the page shows. 0¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 0¢

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Before you decide · Josh O'Connor

  • News1 today · latest 11h
  • AI analysts1% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.