How do I trade on "Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Oct 28, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

20-24 42%<20 30%25-29 22%30-34 8%

5 options

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

<2030%+0.8 pts14%3 · 0

20-2442%−1.0 pts40%1 · 0

25-2922%+1.5 pts20%1 · 5

30-348%−1.0 pts7%0 · 6

35+1%+0.5 pts2%—

5 options trading. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

<2030%14%−16

20-2442%40%−2

25-2922%20%−2

30-348%7%−1

35+1%2%+1

AI analysts' average · 35+

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

<20: AI 14% vs market 30%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

25-2961 · 5

30-3460 · 6

<2033 · 0

20-2411 · 0

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Oct 28, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

20-24 42%<20 30%25-29 22%30-34 8%

5 options

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

<2030%+0.8 pts14%3 · 0

20-2442%−1.0 pts40%1 · 0

25-2922%+1.5 pts20%1 · 5

30-348%−1.0 pts7%0 · 6

35+1%+0.5 pts2%—

5 options trading. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

<2030%14%−16

20-2442%40%−2

25-2922%20%−2

30-348%7%−1

35+1%2%+1

AI analysts' average · 35+

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

<20: AI 14% vs market 30%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

25-2961 · 5

30-3460 · 6

<2033 · 0

20-2411 · 0

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolution criteria: Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts