MarketsPolitics
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 34m ago
None 24%IA, KS 9%AK, IA, KS, OH 3%IA, KS, ME, OH, TX 3%
7 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 options trading, by chance. +121 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
None24%——
IA, KS9%——
AK, IA, KS, OH3%——
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX3%——
IA, MI2%——
IA, ME, MI, TX2%——
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · IA, MI
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- In plain English
- IA, MI's market resolves Yes only if the Republican candidate wins exactly the states named in the option, among the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special) and Texas Senate general elections on November 3, 2026 (runoffs included), and loses every other state in that group. A state counts as not won by the Republican if any other candidate wins it, including an independent, or if its result cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. Resolution is by AP, Fox News and NBC calls; without consensus among the three, official certification decides.
- Watch out
- A state counts as not won by the Republican if the result cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, and an independent winner does not count as Republican. Resolution waits for all three of AP, Fox News and NBC to call every race, or else uses official certification.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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