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What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 levels openCloses Nov 1, 2026Research 4h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

↑ $390 55%↑ $405 53%↓ $360 35%↑ $420 22%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

14 levels open

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
↑ $4803%+1.5 pts1%none
↑ $4653%−3.0 pts3%none
↑ $4503%−6.4 pts7%none
↑ $4357%−8.5 pts12%1 · 0
↑ $42022%−7.0 pts28%1 · 1
↑ $40553%−4.0 pts53%none
↑ $39055%−24.0 pts82%1 · 0
↓ $36035%−2.0 pts77%none
↓ $34520%+1.0 pts34%0 · 1
↓ $3309%+0.5 pts18%none
↓ $31512%+5.5 pts7%none
↓ $3003%−1.0 pts5%none
↓ $2853%+0.2 pts3%0 · 1
↓ $2702%+0.3 pts2%none

14 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $4803%1%−2
↑ $4653%3%0
↑ $4503%7%+4
↑ $4357%12%+5
↑ $42022%28%+6
↑ $40553%53%0
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · ↓ $285

3%

level with the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

↓ $360: AI 77% vs market 35%, 42 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 4h
    Morgan Stanley is bullish on the accelerated expansion of Tesla's (TSLA.US) autonomous driving business and has raised its target price to $410.
    Moomoo
  • 5h
    Tesla, SpaceX, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, Spotify, and More Stocks That Explain Today’s Market
    Barron's
  • 5h
    Tesla Stock Is Trending: What's Going On?
    Benzinga
  • 5h
    Is Tesla a Buy After Its Latest Earnings Report ?
    fool.com
  • 5h
    Tesla Stock Drops as Weak Profits Outweigh Musk’s Bold Robo-Taxi Claims
    Barron's
  • 5h
    Tesla: The Market Is Wrong, Again (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 5h
    Tesla stock dips despite elimination of glut of unsold EVs
    USA Today
  • 5h
    Tesla stock slips despite Q3 earnings beat, better-than-expected capex spend
    Yahoo Finance
  • 5h
    Tesla (TSLA) quietly cuts 2026 capex guidance to $20B
    Electrek
  • 5h
    U . S . Stocks May Move Back To The Downside On Negative Reaction To Tesla , Meta Earnings
    rttnews.com
  • 5h
    Tesla: Profits No Longer Matter (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 5h
    Tesla shares slip after capex cut raises doubts over Musk's AI and robotics push
    Reuters
  • 5h
    Analysts Hike Tesla Price Targets; SpaceX Merger, AI 'In Full Control'
    Investor's Business Daily
  • 5h
    Tesla Q3 2026: Positive Cash, Negative Sales Trends, Crisis Indicated (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 5h
    $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ need another round of plunge! will it happen??
    Moomoo
  • 6h
    A Quick Look at Today's Ratings for Tesla(TSLA.US), With a Forecast Between $400 to $485
    Moomoo
  • 6h
    Tesla Falls 4 % as Profit Shrinks and Musk Trims Sales Target ; Rivian and Lucid Slip
    aol.com
  • 6h
    What analysts are saying about Tesla after earnings (TSLA:NASDAQ)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 6h
    Tesla Q3: EV Sales Down, Outlook Remains Positive (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 7h
    Tesla: The Valuation Is Still Ludicrous (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 7h
    Futures Skid, Oil Pops; Tesla, Meta Are Key Movers
    Investor's Business Daily
  • 7h
    Analysts Have Conflicting Sentiments on These Consumer Cyclical Companies: Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN) and Crocs (CROX)
    The Globe and Mail
  • 7h
    Tesla's Investors Are Paying $386 For A Dream Worth $125 (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 7h
    Tesla (TSLA) Sets Huge 2030 Vehicle Goal as Musk Flags Optimus Delays
    TipRanks
  • 7h
    Meta and Tesla Lay Bare Stock Market’s Biggest AI Puzzle
    Barron's
  • 7h
    Tesla is falling even after earnings. What analysts are saying
    CNBC
  • 8h
    Tesla Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates as SpaceX merger is studied
    Quartz
  • 8h
    Tesla’s auto margins recover as operating income falls 56%
    CBT News
  • 8h
    TSLA Stock Heads For Worst Day In Nearly 7 Weeks – Goldman Sachs Flags Two Key Factors Likely To Pressure Tesla’s Profitability
    Yahoo Finance
  • 9h
    Tesla - SpaceX Merger : Pros and Cons Investors Must Weigh Before a Deal
    businessinsider.com
  • 9h
    Tesla Shares Fall 4.86% Premarket - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Benzinga
  • 9h
    CLSA Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Hold (3)
    StreetInsider
  • 9h
    Stocks to Watch: Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, Blackstone -- WSJ
    Moomoo
  • 9h
    Tesla and SpaceX merger talks are real. Here are the pros and cons investors need to weigh.
    Business Insider
  • 10h
    Tesla, Meta, IBM: 3 earnings call shout-outs that left us thinking
    Yahoo Finance
  • 10h
    Tesla Earnings: Shares Fall on Slower Deliveries Growth Outlook; Raising Valuation
    Morningstar
  • 10h
    Tesla’s stock falls as Elon Musk leaves investors wanting more
    MarketWatch
  • 11h
    Meta’s revenue beat; Tesla’s lower annual sales goal - what’s moving markets
    Yahoo Finance
  • 11h
    TSLA, SPCX Slide Premarket: Musk’s Merger Talk Reportedly Creates ‘Mess’ — Rivian Exec Urges Tesla To ‘Stop Doing These Calls’
    Stocktwits
  • 11h
    Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
    The Globe and Mail
  • 12h
    Gene Munster Says Tesla FSD Is at an ‘Inflection Point’ as TSLA AI Lead Says Rivals Can’t 'Match It' for
    Benzinga
  • 12h
    Tesla App Gains iPad and iPhone Duo Support
    MacRumors
  • 12h
    Tesla Cybercabs Could Reach Customers by End of 2026, but Elon Musk Says Vast Majority Will Be TSLA-Owned
    AOL.com
  • 13h
    TSLA: Tesla Stock Falls 3% as Spending Cuts, Shrinking Profits Cloud Earnings Beat
    TradingView
  • 15h
    SpaceX-Tesla deal intended to close before end of Trump’s term: Bloomberg (TSLA:NASDAQ)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 15h
    Tesla Doesn’t Sell a Single Bitcoin in Q3 as Crypto Stash Jumps 42% to $962 Million
    Yahoo Finance
  • 16h
    Tesla Earnings Review: Margins & Cash Recover; But AI Monetization Still Pushed Back
    Moomoo
  • 17h
    TSLA, SPCX Slip Overnight: Musk Reportedly Pushes Merger Before Trump’s Exit — ARK Sees Tesla Holders ‘5x Better Off’ By 2036
    Stocktwits
  • 18h
    Tesla profits fall on higher spending as 'Elon Inc.' talk builds
    Yahoo Finance
  • 18h
    Tesla (TSLA.US) Q3 Earnings: Cost Savings Boost the Bottom Line, but the AI Narrative Loses Focus
    Moomoo
  • 19h
    Tesla revenue flattens out as Elon Musk eyes possible SpaceX deal
    Axios
  • 19h
    What Tesla (TSLA) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call
    TradingView
  • 19h
    Tesla: SpaceX, Robots, And A Valuation That Defies Gravity
    Seeking Alpha
  • 19h
    TSLA Stock Reverses After-Hours Gains As Tesla Cuts Full-Year Capex Guidance To $20B, Musk Tempers Optimus Timeline
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
    Teslarati
  • 20h
    S&P 500, Nasdaq Gain, Powered By Meta, Tesla Stock — SPCX, META, TSLA, SKYD, IBM In Focus
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    Tesla Earnings Beat, FSD Revenue Strong, But Stock Falls
    Investor's Business Daily
  • 20h
    Tesla Surges 3.6%, Adding Roughly $50 Billion in One Session
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 20h
    TSLA Stock Jumps Higher and Retreats After Tesla Reports Q3 Earnings
    FXLeaders
  • 21h
    Tesla: Don't Fall For The SpaceX Merger Hype (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 21h
    Tesla earnings call: Musk talks EV demand, Optimus production, and Terafab value (TSLA:NASDAQ)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 21h
    Tesla: One Of The Worst Quarters Ever (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Seeking Alpha
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's markets traders by 3-month profit · updated 4h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
↑ $42021 · 1
↑ $43511 · 0
↑ $39011 · 0
↓ $34510 · 1
↓ $28510 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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↓ $285 · Buy YesOption 13 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes5¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · ↓ $285

  • News62 today · latest 4h
  • AI analysts3% · level
  • Tiers 1–20 Yes · 1 No
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.