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Bank of Canada Decision in December?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 optionsCloses Dec 9, 2026Research 4h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 4 options

No Change 51%25 bps increase 47%50+ bps increase 2%25 bps decrease <1%

4 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
50+ bps increase2%−0.6 pts2%—
25 bps increase47%+3.0 pts32%—
No Change51%−2.5 pts57%—
25 bps decrease<1%+0.1 pts7%—

4 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
50+ bps increase2%2%0
25 bps increase47%32%−15
No Change51%57%+6
25 bps decrease<1%7%+6

AI analysts' average · 25 bps decrease

7%

6 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

25 bps increase: AI 32% vs market 47%, 15 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 4h
    Oxford Economics brings forward Bank of Canada rate hikes
    Canadian Mortgage Trends
  • 6h
    National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) in Focus: What Is Driving Investor Attention and What Comes Next?
    kalkine.ca
  • 7h
    Why Did National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) Surge 1.901% on October 21, 2026?
    kalkine.ca
  • 8h
    KPMG Canada Now Expects Bank of Canada Rate Hike in October, Moves Up Forecast From December
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 8h
    Sibos 2026: Encompass and Royal Bank Of Canada on Corporate Digital Identity and AI Trust
    FF News
  • 9h
    Canada faces rising interest rate pressure as BMO pushes for stronger business financing
    Philippine Canadian Inquirer
  • 18h
    Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision Is Less Than 2 Weeks Away: 3 TSX Stocks to Watch
    The Motley Fool Canada
  • 22h
    Paul Martin: Rising oil prices could put Bank of Canada rate hikes back on the table
    MooseJawToday.com
  • 1d
    Canadian bond yields fall as markets assess Bank of Canada rate outlook
    Investing.com Canada
  • 1d
    Canada's tax system should be scrapped and redone, says National Bank CEO
    Financial Post
  • 1d
    Bank of Canada expected to raise rates next week, some economists say
    Forex Factory
  • 1d
    Bank of Canada Preview for October 28: Steady, December tigh
    Continuum Economics
  • 1d
    Bank of Canada increasingly expected to raise interest rates this month
    CBC
  • 1d
    Housing market ’on its knees’ as odds of Bank of Canada rate hike rise
    Radio-Canada
  • 1d
    Royal Bank Of Canada $RY Stock Sold by QV Investors Inc.
    MarketBeat
  • 1d
    Bank of Canada Sounds Alarm Over Immigration Cuts
    Asian Pacific Post
  • 1d
    iVerify Raises $17 Million Led by Sands Capital and Entropy Ventures With Strategic Participation From National Bank of Canada, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines Ventures
    EIN News
  • 2d
    Bank of Canada: Growth inflation trade-off in focus – RBC
    FXStreet
  • 2d
    Inflation return to 2% thrown into doubt, Bank of Canada survey shows
    Mortgage Professional America
  • 2d
    TSX futures inch down as traders eye Bank of Canada rate path
    Investing.com
  • 2d
    Alberta's 76% remain vote sent the loonie surging — but the Oct. 28 Bank of Canada decision could hit your mortgage next
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 2d
    'Bank of Canada will be increasing interest rates by 25 bps': Lau
    BNN Bloomberg
  • 2d
    Possible Bank of Canada Hike Back in Focus as Higher Energy Prices Raise Inflation Risks, Commerzbank Says
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 2d
    Bank of Canada rate hikes priced for next year as oil lifts inflation outlook
    Wealth Professional
  • 2d
    Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Bank of Canada Rate Hike Bets, MUFG Says
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    3% inflation for 2 years expected in Bank of Canada survey of firms
    The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise.
  • 2d
    Canada's inflation jumps to 3.1% as gas surges 28%, putting a Bank of Canada rate hike back on the table
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 2d
    Bank of Canada Hike Bets Surge After Inflation Data
    Briefs Finance
  • 2d
    BMO Sees The Bank Of Canada Leaning Toward Another Hike
    Finimize
  • 2d
    Bank of Canada preview: Scotiabank expects a 25 bp hike next week despite softer core CPI
    investingLive
  • 2d
    Mortgage Rates Forecast Canada 2026-2030
    nesto.ca
  • 2d
    Bank of Canada hike bets grow among economists, traders - CMT News
    Canadian Mortgage Trends
  • 2d
    Understanding how mortgage rates respond to Bank of Canada announcements
    Airdrie City View
  • 3d
    What Canada's latest inflation reading means for mortgages
    Mortgage Professional America
  • 3d
    Bank Of Canada’s business outlook shows concerns about rising costs
    BNN Bloomberg
  • 3d
    Macklem signals higher inflation forecast as oil shock tests Bank of Canada’s hold
    The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise.
  • 3d
    A Bank of Canada rate hike could still land in 2026, say economists after inflation reading
    Financial Post
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada's Q3 Business Outlook Survey Says Tariffs Are Weakening Exports Outlook, Investment, Upping Cost Pressures
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada's Q3 Business Outlook Survey Says Tariffs Are Dampening Business Sentiment
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada’s next move: what top economists are saying
    Mortgage Professional America
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada's Q3 Business Outlook Survey Says Firms Have Higher Inflation Expectations
    marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    Businesses expect inflation rate to remain above 3% over next two years, Bank of Canada survey says
    Financial Post
  • 3d
    Canada Inflation Rate Edges Up to 3.1%, Core Measures Ease
    Bloomberg.com
  • 3d
    BANK OF CANADA: CONSUMER 1-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 4.03% IN Q3 VS. 4.08% IN Q2, 3.98% IN Q1; 2-YEAR OUTLOOK 3.88% IN Q3, 3.97% IN Q2, 3.57% IN Q1
    TradingView
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada Survey Records Notable Rise in Inflation Expectations
    marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY INDICATOR -0.33 IN Q3 VS. -0.38 IN Q2, -0.35 IN Q1
    TradingView
  • 3d
    Canada’s inflation ticks up to 3.1% due to high oil prices
    The Real Economy Blog
  • 3d
    Softer CPI Bolsters Case for Bank of Canada to Hold Rates in October While Energy Prices Cloud Outlook, Economists Say
    marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    September CPI keeps Bank of Canada hold in play
    Mortgage Professional America
  • 3d
    Canada's inflation rate rises above 3% on higher energy prices
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 3d
    Posthaste: How a 'leaky loonie' could raise Bank of Canada interest rates
    Financial Post
  • 3d
    Monday's CPI, Business Survey to Shape Expectations for Next Week's Bank of Canada Rate Decision, RBC Says
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    Monday's CPI to Test Expectations for December Bank of Canada Rate Hike, ING Says
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    Bank of Canada’s Macklem warns global resilience ‘under strain’
    Calgary Journal
  • 4d
    A Bank of Canada hike on Oct. 28 could lift GIC rates but erode the bonds retirees already hold
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 4d
    Bank of Canada set for pair of important data drops ahead of 'live' rate decision
    BNN Bloomberg
  • 5d
    Bank of Canada Sees Higher Oil Prices Boosting Growth, Inflation
    Bloomberg.com
  • 5d
    Bank of Canada sees sharply higher inflation outlook as oil surges, Macklem says
    Reuters
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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25 bps decrease · Buy YesOption 4 of 4

Polymarket price · live

Yes1¢
No100¢
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Before you decide · 25 bps decrease

  • News8 today · latest 4h
  • AI analysts7% · 6 pts above
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.