MarketsBusiness
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 1h ago
25 bps increase 71%No Change 28%
2 options · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
25 bps increase71%25%−46
No Change28%60%+32
AI analysts' average · No Change
60%
32 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Biggest gap
25 bps increase: AI 25% vs market 71%, 46 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
