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U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 optionsCloses Jan 21, 2027Research 4h ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 8 options

3.5–3.9% 51%3.0–3.4% 34%4.0-4.4% 8%<1.0% 3%

8 options

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
<1.0%3%+0.8 pts1%—
1.0–1.4%2%—1%—
1.5–1.9%3%+0.6 pts1%—
2.0–2.4%2%+0.1 pts1%—
2.5–2.9%3%+0.5 pts4%—
3.0–3.4%34%−0.5 pts33%—
3.5–3.9%51%+2.4 pts47%—
4.0-4.4%8%−1.0 pts14%—

8 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<1.0%3%1%−2
1.0–1.4%2%1%−1
1.5–1.9%3%1%−2
2.0–2.4%2%1%−1
2.5–2.9%3%4%+1
3.0–3.4%34%33%−1
+2 more options

AI analysts' average · 1.0–1.4%

1%

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 305 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 2d
    UK Inflation Jumps More Than Expected On Rising Fuel Costs
    Channels Television
  • 2d
    FTSE 100 Joins European Rally; UK Inflation Jumps More than Expected
    Yahoo Finance UK
  • 2d
    British Pound Forecast: UK Inflation Tests Further BoE Hikes
    Exchange Rates UK
  • 2d
    UK Inflation Climbs to 3.5% as Fuel Costs Surge
    Demokratis.co.id
  • 2d
    UK inflation rise to highest in almost a year as Iran war drives fuel prices higher
    KWKT - FOX 44
  • 2d
    UK Inflation Rises to 3.5% Ahead of the Autumn Budget
    Morningstar
  • 3d
    UK inflation and borrowing climb before Healey’s first budget
    Reuters
  • 3d
    UK Inflation Hits 3.5% as Middle East War Raises Fuel Costs
    SuaraGarut.ID
  • 3d
    UK inflation jumps higher than forecast to 3.5% in ‘dose of reality’
    Investment Week
  • 3d
    Inflation in the UK: Economic indicators
    The House of Commons Library
  • 3d
    Producer price inflation, UK: September 2026
    Forex Factory
  • 3d
    UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September as energy price rises hit economy
    Business Live
  • 3d
    UK inflation rises to 3.1% in August, highest in five months
    TradingView
  • 3d
    UK Inflation Rate Hits 11-Month High
    TradingView
  • 3d
    UK inflation up from 3.1% to 3.5% in September
    Breakingthenews.net
  • 3d
    UK inflation jumps to 3.5% - cementing rate hike expectations
    Forex Factory
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarShow rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
How markets resolve
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1.0–1.4% · Buy YesOption 2 of 8

Polymarket price · live

Yes—
No—
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Before you decide · 1.0–1.4%

  • News0 today · latest 2d
  • AI analysts1% · 1 pts below
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.