MarketsPolitics
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels openResearch 1h ago
38.0+ 96%39.0+ 9%40.0+ 1%41.0+ <1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
36.0+>99%99%0
38.0+96%87%−9
39.0+9%35%+26
40.0+1%4%+3
41.0+<1%1%0
AI analysts' average · 40.0+
4%
3 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Biggest gap
39.0+: AI 35% vs market 9%, 26 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.