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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Oct 27, 2026Research 8h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

78-80% 60%76-78% 25%80-82% 11%<76% 5%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
<76%5%+1.1 pts4%0 · 1
76-78%25%+3.0 pts22%none
78-80%60%+1.0 pts60%none
80-82%11%−5.0 pts20%0 · 1
82%+2%—2%none

5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<76%5%4%−1
76-78%25%22%−3
78-80%60%60%0
80-82%11%20%+9
82%+2%2%0

AI analysts' average · 82%+

2%

level with the market · 5 AI analysts

Biggest gap

80-82%: AI 20% vs market 11%, 9 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 8h
    Voter turnout soars in some key states, AP-NORC poll finds voters want Congress to focus on costs and Iran
    AP News
  • 10h
    Black voter turnout higher than normal for Louisiana’s first day of early voting
    Louisiana Illuminator
  • 10h
    Black voters are showing up early in Louisiana’s election. Here’s why it could matter.
    NOLA.com
  • 14h
    Local leaders sound alarm on Black voter turnout
    WCCB Charlotte
  • 16h
    James Talarico rallies in Richmond, talks attack ads and voter turnout
    KHOU
  • 17h
    High voter turnout no barometer of who will win the election, experts say
    ABC13 Houston
  • 19h
    Johnson, Wyandotte counties seeing double to triple the early voter turnout of 2022 midterm election
    KMBC
  • 19h
    Trump targets GOP stronghold in Iowa to boost voter turnout for key races
    weareiowa.com
  • 20h
    Rockhold emphasizes voter turnout in Moorhead legislative campaign
    WDAY Radio
  • 20h
    Juneau sees 36.11% turnout for 2026 regular municipal election
    Juneau Empire
  • 20h
    Grayson County sees high early voter turnout as lawmakers visit Denison
    KXII
  • 22h
    Ohio early voter turnout surging
    NBC4 WCMH-TV
  • 1d
    Record early voter turnout for El Paso
    KTSM 9 News
  • 1d
    How visits from presidents could impact voter turnout in Georgia
    Georgia Public Broadcasting
  • 1d
    Turnout among Israel’s Arab voters could make or break hopes to unseat Netanyahu
    The Times of Israel
  • 1d
    Osceola County town hall aims to boost Latino voter turnout
    Spectrum News 13
  • 1d
    Vote 2026: President Trump returns to North Carolina as early voting turnout surges statewide in midterm elections
    ABC11 News
  • 1d
    ‘There will be lines’: Voter turnout expected to surge on election day
    YourCentralValley.com
  • 1d
    Columbus voters react as Georgia sees record early voting turnout
    WTVM.com
  • 1d
    Benton, Washington counties report high voter turnout on first day of early voting
    KNWA FOX24
  • 1d
    Bell County on pace to break midterm voter turnout record
    KWTX
  • 1d
    Arkansas election officials address ballot concerns as early voting turnout surges
    thv11.com
  • 1d
    Experts: Colorado Elections, Voter Turnout and Voting Access | Newswise
    Newswise
  • 1d
    North Texas voters face long lines as early voting turnout surges
    NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
  • 1d
    Turnout tracker: How many people have voted in the November 2026 election?
    KXAN Austin
  • 1d
    Early voting turnout so far shows enthusiasm among unaffiliated voters in NC
    NC Newsline
  • 1d
    Early voting numbers in Smith and Gregg counties show current voter turnout
    cbs19.tv
  • 2d
    Travis County reports record turnout for first day of midterm election early voting
    KVUE
  • 2d
    First-day early voting numbers in Pulaski County far exceed previous midterm election turnout
    The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
  • 2d
    Harris County crushes midterm first-day early voter turnout record
    Houston Public Media
  • 2d
    Congressman Maxwell Frost endorses young voter turnout for midterm election during Ohio State meet-and-greet
    The Lantern
  • 2d
    Early voter turnout increases compared to 2022 midterms
    ValleyCentral.com
  • 2d
    Jackson County, Ill. sees early voter turnout ahead of midterms
    KFVS12
  • 2d
    Smith County sees strong early voter turnout as residents prioritize community impact
    cbs19.tv
  • 2d
    Trump heads to Greenville as NC Republicans struggle with early voter turnout
    NC Newsline
  • 3d
    Election officials report strong turnout at the polls on first day of early voting in Bexar County
    kens5.com
  • 3d
    Arab voter turnout could make or break Netanyahu in Israeli election
    Reuters
  • 4d
    ‘No Kings’ rallies across NH focus on voter turnout
    New Hampshire Public Radio
  • 4d
    'No Kings' movement gathers to focus on voter turnout for midterm elections
    ABC7 New York
  • 4d
    In Montgomery, ‘No Kings’ demonstration encourages voter registration, turnout
    Alabama Reflector
  • 6d
    Brazil Election Live Results First Round 2026: Lula, Bolsonaro in Presidential Race
    Bloomberg.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
<76%10 · 1
80-82%10 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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82%+ · Buy YesOption 5 of 5

Polymarket price · live

Yes2¢
No99¢
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Before you decide · 82%+

  • News12 today · latest 8h
  • AI analysts2% · level
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

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