MarketsWorld
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
CLOSED0 options1 closedResearch 8d ago
0 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed option
0 open levels, in level order. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · Remain 20–40%
10%
7 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
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News
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Rules
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- In plain English
- The market resolves to the bracket containing |Remain% − Leave%| of valid votes on Question 10, counting valid votes cast on Q10 only. If Leave gets more votes it resolves 'Leave wins'. This bracket is 'Remain by 20–40%'. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. A tie goes to 'Remain <20%'. Resolution uses the official results, and an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If the vote isn't definitively known by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, the market reso…
- Resolution criteria
- Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
- Waiting for official results.
- Expected by . The source's official result is not final yet. This market waits for it.
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