MarketsPolitics
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 options2 closedResearch 3d ago
0 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 closed options
0 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · Lula
66%
34 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Lula resolves Yes if the candidate receives the most valid votes abroad ('Exterior' in TSE results) in the October 25, 2026 second round of the Brazil presidential election. Ties are broken alphabetically. It resolves to 'Other' if the result isn't known by June 30, 2027.
- Resolution criteria
- The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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