MarketsWorld
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 options5 closedResearch 2d ago
0 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 closed options
0 open levels, in level order. +5 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · 80-82%
57%
43 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 360–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 80-82% resolves Yes if the official TSE turnout rate for the second round of Brazil's presidential election, held October 25, 2026, falls in that bracket. Turnout is total votes cast divided by total eligible voters. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. If results are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket (<76%). The source is official TSE information.
- Resolution criteria
- The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sign in to comment