MarketsCrypto
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels openResearch 6d ago
$150M 83%$300M 32%$500M 14%$800M 6%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
6 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
$150M83%66%−17
$300M32%37%+5
$500M14%17%+3
$800M6%9%+3
$1B5%5%0
$3B1%2%+1
AI analysts' average · $150M
66%
17 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$150MYes 43dkl5r43dkl5r: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 43dkl5r43dkl5r: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T14 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 4
$300MYes fakerfanfakerfan: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 fakerfanfakerfan: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T143dkl5r43dkl5r: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
$500MNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1pp101pp101: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
$800MYes 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if Extended's token launches (publicly transferable and tradable) by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET and its FDV (total supply times price) is above $150M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. Otherwise No, including if there is no launch by that deadline.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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