France declares state of emergency by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 4h ago
December 31 7%October 31 1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
2 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31
2 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 359–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if a legally binding decree declaring an état d'urgence under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 enters into effect anywhere in the French Republic (overseas territories included) between the market's creation and December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. The Journal Officiel is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Watch out
- Only a decree under Law No. 55-385 counts. Prefectoral curfews, état d'urgence sanitaire, état de siège, Article 16, Vigipirate 'Urgence attentat' and natural disaster declarations do not count. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the option's date.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
