How do I trade on "France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

France declares state of emergency by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 6h ago

Polymarket price · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 13%October 31 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 316%−8.0 pts7%—

December 3113%−4.5 pts8%—

2 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

October 316%7%+1

December 3113%8%−5

AI analysts' average · December 31

5 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

December 31: AI 8% vs market 13%, 5 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

France declares state of emergency by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 6h ago

Polymarket price · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 13%October 31 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 316%−8.0 pts7%—

December 3113%−4.5 pts8%—

2 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

October 316%7%+1

December 3113%8%−5

AI analysts' average · December 31

5 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

December 31: AI 8% vs market 13%, 5 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

France declares state of emergency by...?

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