MarketsGeopolitics
Highest 7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 1m agoPolymarket 24h vol $242
40+ 50%45+ 48%50+ 47%35+ 35%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
30+No smart money84%
35+No smart money35%
40+No smart money50%
45+No smart money48%
50+No smart money47%
55+No smart money10%
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for any single date between market creation and December 31, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.