MarketsClimate
Highest temperature in Munich on October 20?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 options1 closedResearch 9d ago
0 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed option
0 options trading. +11 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · 10°C
8%
8 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the highest 'Temp' reading on NOAA's Munich Airport (EDDM) timeseries for 20 Oct 2026 is 10°C, in whole °C. Otherwise it resolves to the bracket that contains the actual high. Weather Underground is the fallback if NOAA data is missing by 11:59 PM ET on 21 Oct. If both are missing, it resolves to the lowest bracket.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
- Waiting for official results.
- Expected by . The source's official result is not final yet. This market waits for it.
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