MarketsGeopolitics
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands at APEC?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 1m agoPolymarket 24h vol $1.4K
6–10s 31%10–15s 24%2–6s 25%<2s 10%
7 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
No HandshakeNo smart money8%
<2sNo smart money10%
2–6sNo smart money25%
6–10sNo smart money31%
10–15sNo smart money24%
15s+No smart money9%
Photographed onlyNo smart money3%
7 open levels, in level order.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during this visit. Any handshake recorded during the visit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. If no handshake occurs during the visit, or if Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (China Standard Time) of the visit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) that Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the visit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.