MarketsGeopolitics
How long will Xi and Takaichi shake hands?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $13.8K
2–6s 42%6–10s 21%<2s 16%No Handshake 11%
7 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
No HandshakeSmart money1 Yes0 No11%20%
<2sNo smart money16%
2–6sNo smart money42%45%
6–10sNo smart money21%18%
10–15sNo smart money4%
15s+No smart money<1%
Photographed onlyNo smart money9%
7 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No Handshake11%20%+9
<2s16%
2–6s42%45%+3
6–10s21%18%−3
10–15s4%
15s+<1%
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · No Handshake
20%
9 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on No Handshake
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No HandshakeYes crxocrxo: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 crxocrxo: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19, 2026, which will be hosted by Xi Jinping. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Xi Jinping and Sanae Takaichi during this summit. Any handshake recorded during the summit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Sanae Takaichi enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory. If no handshake occurs during the summit, or if Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Shenzhen time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (Shenzhen time) of the summit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (Shenzhen time) that Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Shenzhen time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.