Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished1 level openResearch 17h ago
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? 1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
1 open level, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
14 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if, in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, either (a) The Democrats + Yashar + Together + Yisrael Beiteinu, or (b) Likud + Otzma Yehudit + RZP-Zehut + Amcha Yisrael + United Torah Judaism + Shas, wins a combined 61 or more of the 120 seats. Otherwise No, and No if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is by consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Committee's official results if ambiguous.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
