How do I trade on "Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Jan 23, 2027Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · top 3 of 5 options

2.0-2.4% 59%≤1.9% 40%2.5-2.9% <1%

5 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

≤1.9%40%+0.5 pts69%—

2.0-2.4%59%−0.5 pts48%—

2.5-2.9%<1%—1%—

3.0-3.4%————

4.0%+————

5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

2 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

≤1.9%40%69%+29

2.0-2.4%59%48%−11

2.5-2.9%<1%1%+1

3.0-3.4%———

4.0%+———

AI analysts' average · 2.0-2.4%

48%

11 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. 1 of the 2 holds 2.0-2.4%. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

5d
Japan Core Inflation Exceeds BOJ Target, Cements Near-Term Rate Hike Chance
KONTAN

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if the 2026 annual core CPI change (all items less fresh food) in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's annual report is between 2.0% and 2.4%, inclusive at one decimal. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

How markets resolve