How do I trade on "Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 optionsCloses Mar 2, 2027Research 7h ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 19 options

No Next Minister by Feb 28 52%Avigdor Lieberman 13%Naftali Bennett 12%Israel Katz 10%

19 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Next Minister by Feb 2852%+9.1 pts44%none

Avigdor Lieberman13%−2.9 pts11%none

Naftali Bennett12%−6.5 pts11%none

Israel Katz10%+2.6 pts9%none

Itamar Ben Gvir4%−3.8 pts4%none

Gadi Eizenkot3%−0.7 pts3%none

Moshe Feiglin2%−4.8 pts1%none

Yoram Cohen1%−0.5 pts3%none

Ofer Winter<1%−3.2 pts3%none

Benjamin Netanyahu<1%−0.4 pts1%none

Yair Lapid<1%−2.2 pts1%none

Elazar Stern<1%—1%none

Bezalel Smotrich<1%−6.2 pts5%none

Eli Cohen<1%—2%none

Amir Ohana<1%−0.4 pts1%none

Matan Kahana<1%—1%none

Yoaz Hendel<1%—1%none

Benny Gantz<1%−0.1 pts1%none

Yair Golan<1%−0.1 pts1%none

19 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Next Minister by Feb 2852%44%−8

Avigdor Lieberman13%11%−2

Naftali Bennett12%11%−1

Israel Katz10%9%−1

Itamar Ben Gvir4%4%0

Gadi Eizenkot3%3%0

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · No Next Minister by Feb 28

44%

8 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

6h
Moshe Feiglin to Arutz Sheva: I am aiming to become Defense Minister in next government
Israel National News
20h
War debt, housing and defense: 10 economic tests facing Israel's next government
Ynetnews
1d
Israeli defense minister denies Netanyahu-IDF rift over Iran attack plans
Saudi Gazette
5d
Defense Minister Katz: Opposition is to blame for any future terror attacks
Haaretz
6d
Prime Minister Netanyahu: the next defense minister must be from Likud — Jerusalem Post
UA.NEWS
6d
Benjamin Netanyahu pushes back on Ben-Gvir's ambitions to become defense minister
The Jerusalem Post

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 10h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

19 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

No Next Minister by Feb 28 resolves Yes if they are the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Defense, or its confirmed successor post, in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. The Knesset must approve them in the government's confidence vote or in a later vote approving their appointment. Interim or caretaker ministers don't count, and later replacements don't change the result. If the Defense portfolio is split among successor posts, the market resolves to the holder whose full name comes first alphabetically. If no qualifying Minister of Defense takes office by Februar…Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: No Next Minister by Feb 28 resolves Yes if they are the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Defense, or its confirmed successor post, in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. The Knesset must approve them in the government's confidence vote or in a later vote approving their appointment. Interim or caretaker ministers don't count, and later replacements don't change the result. If the Defense portfolio is split among successor posts, the market resolves to the holder whose full name comes first alphabetically. If no qualifying Minister of Defense takes office by Februar…
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve