How do I trade on "Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN13 optionsCloses Mar 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 13 options

No Next Minister by Feb 28 50%Avigdor Lieberman 12%Bezalel Smotrich 8%Yaron Zelekha 5%

13 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Next Minister by Feb 2850%+6.0 pts45%none

Avigdor Lieberman12%−1.6 pts10%none

Bezalel Smotrich8%−1.9 pts8%none

Yaron Zelekha5%−8.4 pts3%none

Naftali Bennett5%−8.0 pts10%none

Nir Barkat2%−0.8 pts2%none

Eli Cohen1%−2.8 pts4%none

Moshe Feiglin<1%−0.2 pts2%none

Benjamin Netanyahu<1%—1%none

Israel Katz<1%−2.4 pts3%none

Yair Lapid<1%−0.1 pts3%none

Orit Farkash-Hacohen<1%—1%none

Gadi Eizenkot<1%—1%none

13 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Next Minister by Feb 2850%45%−5

Avigdor Lieberman12%10%−2

Bezalel Smotrich8%8%0

Yaron Zelekha5%3%−2

Naftali Bennett5%10%+5

Nir Barkat2%2%0

+7 more options

AI analysts' average · No Next Minister by Feb 28

45%

5 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

1d
Next government will receive new economic plan from Finance Ministry
The Jerusalem Post
1d
Ex-Israeli Finance minister calls for Netanyahu to be investigated for charge of treason
KATU

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 41m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 13 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes for No Next Minister by Feb 28 if that person first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, with Knesset approval. Caretaker or interim ministers do not count. If no such minister takes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' resolves Yes.
Watch out: A caretaker or interim Finance Minister does not count. The person must be approved by the Knesset in the first government formed after the 2026 elections, and anyone appointed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET is too late.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve