Next Press Secretary announced by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 4d ago
December 31 69%November 30 35%October 31 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels open · in level order
3 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · November 30
11 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 1 price closer, on 358–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Trump or his administration announces a new White House Press Secretary, replacing Katie Zacharia, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the date in 'November 30'. Otherwise it resolves No. Acting or interim appointees don't count. The announcement counts whenever the person is sworn in. Official administration information decides, and credible reporting consensus may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Katie Zacharia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
