MarketsEconomy
November Unemployment Rate
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $7.1K
4.2% 33%4.1% 32%4.0% 16%4.3% 11%
9 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
≤3.8%No smart money1%
3.9%No smart money2%
4.0%No smart money16%
4.1%No smart money32%
4.2%No smart money33%
4.3%No smart money11%
4.4%No smart money1%
4.5%No smart money<1%
≥4.6%No smart money<1%
9 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
9 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026, in the BLS Employment Situation report due December 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (Table A-15), matches ≤3.8%. Revisions after the first release do not count. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- Only the first-release November 2026 U-3 rate, to one decimal, counts. Later revisions are ignored.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for November 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for December 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.