MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN19 optionsResearch 1d ago
John Malkovich 43%Andrew Scott 18%Matt Damon 17%Tom Cruise 12%
19 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
19 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
John Malkovich43%33%−10
Andrew Scott18%15%−3
Matt Damon17%24%+7
Tom Cruise12%10%−2
Robert Pattinson3%3%0
Anthony Ippolito2%1%−1
+13 more options
AI analysts' average · John Malkovich
33%
10 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
John MalkovichYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1leftisrightleftisright: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
Andrew ScottYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
Matt DamonYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
Brad PittNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Pedro PascalYes crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- John Malkovich's market resolves Yes if John Malkovich wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor (ceremony March 14, 2027). It resolves No at once if John Malkovich is not nominated when nominations are announced on January 21, 2027. In a tie, the nominee whose last name comes first alphabetically takes it. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The sources are AMPAS/Oscars.org and the live broadcast, and a consensus of credible reporting may al…
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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