MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN11 levels openResearch 4d ago
The Black Ball 43%Godzilla Minus Zero 28%Michael 23%The End of Oak Street 18%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
11 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
11 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Project Hail Mary96%92%−4
The Odyssey92%85%−7
Dune: Part Three84%85%+1
The Black Ball43%30%−13
Godzilla Minus Zero28%15%−13
Michael23%33%+10
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · Project Hail Mary
92%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Project Hail MaryYes StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
The OdysseyYes sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Dune: Part ThreeYes sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
The Black BallYes sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
MichaelNo 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
The End of Oak StreetNo sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
WerwulfNo sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
DiggerNo StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
The DebutYes crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Project Hail Mary resolves Yes if it is officially nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards when nominees are announced (scheduled January 21, 2027). It resolves No if it is not nominated, or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The Academy and AMPAS (oscars.org) are the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Sound. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Sound when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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