MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN20 levels openResearch 4d ago
Guitarricadelafuente 67%John Leguizamo 61%Edward Norton 47%Robert Pattinson 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
20 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
20 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Paul Giamatti93%88%−5
Andrew Garfield78%67%−11
Sam Rockwell76%72%−4
Guitarricadelafuente67%48%−19
John Leguizamo61%59%−2
Edward Norton47%45%−2
+14 more options
AI analysts' average · Paul Giamatti
88%
5 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
John LeguizamoYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Edward NortonYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Colman DomingoYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
John GoodmanNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Sam RockwellYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
GuitarricadelafuenteYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Steve BuscemiNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
James OrtizNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Charles MeltonNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Tom HollandNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
10 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Paul Giamatti resolves Yes if the listed actor is officially nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards when nominations are announced (scheduled for January 21, 2027). It resolves No if the actor is not nominated, or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The Academy (AMPAS, oscars.org) is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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