MarketsGeopolitics
Peak daily ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $0
28+ 50%30+ 50%32+ 50%34+ 50%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
28+No smart money50%
30+No smart money50%
32+No smart money50%
34+No smart money50%
36+No smart money50%
38+No smart money50%
6 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on any single date from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily figures are the total transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that IMF PortWatch publishes for each date. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.