How do I trade on "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 levels openCloses Feb 2, 2027Research 2d ago

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

January 31, 2027 60%January 15, 2027 56%December 31, 2026 17%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

3 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 202617%+1.0 pts11%0 · 1

January 15, 202756%+11.0 pts41%none

January 31, 202760%+0.5 pts55%0 · 1

3 options trading.

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

December 31, 202617%11%−6

January 15, 202756%41%−15

January 31, 202760%55%−5

AI analysts' average · January 31, 2027

55%

5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

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News

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

December 31, 2026No whig T201 whig T20 · 1

January 31, 2027No alwaysOn T201 alwaysOn T20 · 1

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

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In plain English: The market resolves Yes if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Spain's Prime Minister for any period by the stated date (ET), or if he announces a resignation or removal by then. Detention or permanent incapacity also count. For the January 31 and January 15, 2027 options, serving as acting or caretaker PM does not count as ceasing. The December 31, 2026 option's rules omit that sentence.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pedro Sánchez continuing as Prime Minister in an acting or caretaker capacity will not be considered a cessation of office. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve