MarketsPolitics
Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 6h ago
↓ 30% 16%↑ 40% 11%↓ 25% 3%↑ 55% 1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ 55%1%1%0
↑ 40%11%10%−1
↓ 30%16%20%+4
↓ 25%3%3%0
AI analysts' average · ↓ 30%
20%
4 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 1 price closer, on 312–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ 40%No Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
↓ 30%No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ 25%No Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if the Republican Party's hourly odds value is at or below 30.0% for 4 consecutive hourly values published before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET; otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 30% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is above 30% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Republican Party between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Republican Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
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