MarketsGeopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $502
June 30, 2027 52%March 31, 2027 30%December 31, 2027 73%January 31, 2027 15%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
January 31, 2027No smart money15%
March 31, 2027No smart money30%
June 30, 2027No smart money52%
December 31, 2027No smart money73%
4 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for any single date from market creation to the specified date, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve to “Yes” as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average, or to “No” once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period with no qualifying 7-day moving average. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.