Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels openResearch 9h ago
$20M 78%$30M 67%$40M 47%$60M 29%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels open · in level order
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · $40M
4 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Rules
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- In plain English
- $40M resolves Yes if the headline pool total on the official 1W sale page (https://1wtoken.com/) exceeds $40M at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The figure is the gross USDC pool, including oversubscription, and an exact match does not count. If the page is unavailable, official 1W announcements or credible reporting are used. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
